Bill Clinton this week made an “officially private” visit to North Korea to negotiate the release of two journalists (and it appears that he was successful, NYT). This is, of course, unrelated to the nuclear issue, but it should remind us that little progress has been made on this issue this year (or decade).
Understanding the internal politics of the North Korean regime is difficult. Kim may feel that the nuclear program is tied to regime legitimacy. Some things, however, are certain: Pyongyang’s nuclear program has been a cash cow for the regime, and the willingness of US presidents to let the multilateral process drag out and thereby increase the likelihood of proliferation has played into Kim’s hands. Once he has a working bomb, the game tilts in his favor, so he’s happy to patiently wait while Washington decides what to do.
Of course, Clinton is among a growing list of US presidents who have consistently misread Pyongyang’s intentions. So far these include at least Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and George W. Bush.
Will Obama join these sad ranks?
Real Diplomacy 