The NYT reports that next month Obama will announce his strategy for ballistic missile defense (BMD). The administration must by now be fully aware of the bind they’re in. I’ll be surprised if he does anything other than kick the can down the road, as he is doing with both Iran and North Korea.
Missile defense has always been one of the catch-22s of Obama’s political platforms (hate to say I told you so). US BMD assets in eastern Europe have become very important to our allies there (Poland hastily approved the plans within days of the Georgian invasion last August, for obvious reasons). The program would be implemented in what Moscow sees as Russia’s sphere of influence, which has prompted serious anger from the Kremlin with promises to place Russian nuclear assets in western Russia and Kaliningrad. The ultimate catch-22–embarrassingly predictable–is that Obama promised a new, gentler foreign policy, and his bluff was promptly called by Moscow. If Obama really wants Change, Putin & co. argued, he will not be so belligerent as to place missile defense near Russia’s border. But Obama knows that abandoning BMD will be seen as feebly caving to pressure from Moscow and abandoning highly strategic US allies in eastern Europe.
Obama’s little mess is complicated by his clear lack of will regarding Iranian proliferation. I’ve been arguing for some time that when Iran proliferates the political demands for missile defense, from both domestic constituencies and our Middle Eastern and CEE allies, will become irresistible. At that point, not only will abandoning missile defense look like caving to the Kremlin, but it will also look like exposing the US and its allies to a real nuclear threat for the first time since the Cold War. Note that this is all political–whether missile defense can be effective or not is largely irrelevant to Obama’s catch-22.
Bush II overstretched US military assets. Obama has shown a clear lack of will to pursue costly interests. As such, the United States has chosen to allow Iranian proliferation, perhaps during Obama’s tenure. Is he ready to deal with the consequences of this choice? One of these will be the requirement that he directly confront the convoluted missile defense issue.